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Dominant Legia Warszawa run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Radomiak Radom.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Legia Warszawa beat Radomiak Radom 4-1 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego, Regular Season - 8, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.73 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.11 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Legia Warszawa beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 0.92 / defence 0.92 against Radomiak Radom attack 1.01 / defence 1.20, drawn from 39/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 52% | Draw 24% | Radomiak Radom 24%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 54%, Radomiak Radom 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.56 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights