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Legia Warszawa cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Puszcza Niepołomice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Legia Warszawa beat Puszcza Niepołomice 2-0 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 21, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.57 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 0.91 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Puszcza Niepołomice landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.20 / defence 1.04 against Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.79 / defence 0.92, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 53% | Draw 26% | Puszcza Niepołomice 21%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 50%, Puszcza Niepołomice 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.09. That form edge translated into the three points. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights