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Stalemate at Legia Warszawa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 26, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.63 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.31 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Legia Warszawa fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Pogon Szczecin landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.28 / defence 0.92 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.18 / defence 0.88, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 45% | Draw 24% | Pogon Szczecin 31%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 52%, Pogon Szczecin 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.68 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights