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Shock result as Nieciecza defy the odds to beat Legia Warszawa 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nieciecza beat Legia Warszawa 1-2 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego, Regular Season - 15, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.58 xG and Nieciecza 0.80 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Nieciecza outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 0.84 / defence 0.67 against Nieciecza attack 1.02 / defence 1.16, drawn from 47/14 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 54% | Draw 29% | Nieciecza 17%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Nieciecza win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 43%, Nieciecza 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Nieciecza's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.71. Form was overturned, with Nieciecza winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights