🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Legia Warszawa run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Motor Lublin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Legia Warszawa beat Motor Lublin 4-0 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego, Regular Season - 34, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.35 xG and Motor Lublin 1.11 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Legia Warszawa beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Motor Lublin landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 0.89 / defence 0.79 against Motor Lublin attack 1.20 / defence 1.10, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 41% | Draw 30% | Motor Lublin 29%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 48%, Motor Lublin 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Motor Lublin's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.49 PPG, Motor Lublin 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights