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Prediction vindicated as Legia Warszawa edge out Lechia Gdansk 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Legia Warszawa beat Lechia Gdansk 2-1 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.88 xG and Lechia Gdansk 0.87 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 0.99 / defence 0.82 against Lechia Gdansk attack 0.86 / defence 1.28, drawn from 62/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 61% | Draw 22% | Lechia Gdansk 17%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 54%, Lechia Gdansk 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.96. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights