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Stalemate at Legia Warszawa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego, Regular Season - 13, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.30 xG and Lech Poznan 1.03 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Legia Warszawa fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Lech Poznan landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 0.91 / defence 0.73 against Lech Poznan attack 1.19 / defence 0.85, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 42% | Draw 29% | Lech Poznan 29%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 53%, Lech Poznan 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Lech Poznan's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.53. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights