🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Lech Poznan defy the odds to beat Legia Warszawa 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lech Poznan beat Legia Warszawa 0-1 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 32, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.41 xG and Lech Poznan 1.11 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Legia Warszawa fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 0.94 / defence 0.84 against Lech Poznan attack 1.06 / defence 0.96, drawn from 64/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 44% | Draw 27% | Lech Poznan 30%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Lech Poznan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 53%, Lech Poznan 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Lech Poznan's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.70 PPG, Lech Poznan 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lech Poznan win broke the near-deadlock. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights