🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 19, as Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.86 xG and Korona Kielce 1.08 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Legia Warszawa fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.27 / defence 1.03 against Korona Kielce attack 0.92 / defence 1.01, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 55% | Draw 24% | Korona Kielce 21%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 52%, Korona Kielce 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Korona Kielce's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights