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Stalemate at Legia Warszawa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego, Regular Season - 6, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.30 xG and Jagiellonia 1.18 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Legia Warszawa fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Jagiellonia landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.10 / defence 0.91 against Jagiellonia attack 1.07 / defence 0.77, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 39% | Draw 27% | Jagiellonia 34%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 54%, Jagiellonia 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Jagiellonia's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.59 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights