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Shock result as Jagiellonia defy the odds to beat Legia Warszawa 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jagiellonia beat Legia Warszawa 0-1 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 28, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.52 xG and Jagiellonia 0.91 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Legia Warszawa fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.09 / defence 0.82 against Jagiellonia attack 0.94 / defence 0.93, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 52% | Draw 26% | Jagiellonia 22%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Jagiellonia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 52%, Jagiellonia 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Jagiellonia's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.69 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jagiellonia win broke the near-deadlock. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights