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Prediction vindicated as Legia Warszawa edge out Cracovia Krakow 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Legia Warszawa beat Cracovia Krakow 1-0 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego, Regular Season - 24, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 0.98 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.97 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cracovia Krakow landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 0.92 / defence 1.03 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.82 / defence 0.74, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 33% | Draw 34% | Cracovia Krakow 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The actual Legia Warszawa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 53%, Cracovia Krakow 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.39 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights