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Stalemate at Legia Warszawa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Legia Warszawa and Arka Gdynia finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego, Regular Season - 3, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.56 xG and Arka Gdynia 0.84 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Legia Warszawa fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Arka Gdynia landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 0.94 / defence 0.94 against Arka Gdynia attack 0.70 / defence 1.05, drawn from 35/2 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 54% | Draw 25% | Arka Gdynia 20%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 50%, Arka Gdynia 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Form vs Result

On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Legia Warszawa managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Arka Gdynia conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights