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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lechia Gdansk and Wisla Plock share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Polsat Plus Arena, Regular Season - 11, as Lechia Gdansk and Wisla Plock drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.79 xG and Wisla Plock 1.19 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 1.11 / defence 1.18 against Wisla Plock attack 0.84 / defence 1.04, drawn from 44/9 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 51% | Draw 24% | Wisla Plock 25%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 67%, Wisla Plock 22%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (9 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Wisla Plock's trading profile (9 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Wisla Plock arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights