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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Lechia Gdansk edge out Stal Mielec 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lechia Gdansk beat Stal Mielec 3-2 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk, Regular Season - 28, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.24 xG and Stal Mielec 1.14 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stal Mielec outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 0.66 / defence 1.06 against Stal Mielec attack 0.91 / defence 1.28, drawn from 27/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 39% | Draw 28% | Stal Mielec 34%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 48%, Stal Mielec 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Stal Mielec's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lechia Gdansk 0.89 PPG, Stal Mielec 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lechia Gdansk win broke the near-deadlock. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights