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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 28

Kick-off

Mon 14 Apr 2025

18:00

Venue

Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Poland

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Lechia Gdansk Win

39%

Lechia Gdansk

2.58

28%

Draw

3.60

34%

Stal Mielec

2.98

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

13.1%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

11.5%

Home win

0 – 1

10.5%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.24

Lechia Gdansk xG

Total xG

2.38

1.14

Stal Mielec xG

39%
28%
34%
Lechia GdanskDrawStal Mielec

2.58

39%

Home win

3.60

28%

Draw

2.98

34%

Away win

Goals Markets

69%

Over 1.5

1.45

31%

Under 1.5

3.23

42%

Over 2.5

2.38

58%

Under 2.5

1.72

22%

Over 3.5

4.55

78%

Under 3.5

1.28

9%

Over 4.5

11.11

91%

Under 4.5

1.10

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

48%

BTTS Yes

2.07

52%

BTTS No

1.93

Clean Sheet

32%

Lechia Gdansk

3.11

29%

Stal Mielec

3.46

Win to Nil

12%

Lechia Gdansk

8.05

10%

Stal Mielec

10.33

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 9.3 10.5 6.0 2.3 0.6 0.1
1 11.5 13.1 7.4 2.8 0.8 0.2
2 7.2 8.1 4.6 1.7 0.5 0.1
3 3.0 3.4 1.9 0.7 0.2
4 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1
5 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.242
λ Away (xG) 1.136
Total xG 2.378
League avg home goals 1.479
League avg away goals 1.181
Lechia Gdansk attack strength 0.656
Lechia Gdansk defence strength 1.060
Stal Mielec attack strength 0.907
Stal Mielec defence strength 1.280
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 27 / 61