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Puszcza Niepołomice cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lechia Gdansk.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Puszcza Niepołomice beat Lechia Gdansk 0-2 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk, Regular Season - 22, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 0.94 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 0.86 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Puszcza Niepołomice outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 0.69 / defence 1.08 against Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.71 / defence 0.95, drawn from 21/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 35% | Draw 34% | Puszcza Niepołomice 31%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Puszcza Niepołomice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 48%, Puszcza Niepołomice 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lechia Gdansk 1.00 PPG, Puszcza Niepołomice 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Puszcza Niepołomice win broke the near-deadlock. Puszcza Niepołomice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights