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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lechia Gdansk cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Piast Gliwice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lechia Gdansk beat Piast Gliwice 3-1 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk, Regular Season - 30, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 0.89 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.22 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 0.78 / defence 1.12 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.88 / defence 0.76, drawn from 29/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 27% | Draw 29% | Piast Gliwice 44%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Lechia Gdansk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 52%, Piast Gliwice 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Piast Gliwice's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lechia Gdansk 0.93 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lechia Gdansk win broke the near-deadlock. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights