🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Lechia Gdansk run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Nieciecza.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lechia Gdansk beat Nieciecza 5-1 at Polsat Plus Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.77 xG and Nieciecza 1.45 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 0.96 / defence 1.09 against Nieciecza attack 1.07 / defence 1.11, drawn from 50/16 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 43% | Draw 27% | Nieciecza 30%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 75%, Nieciecza 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.

Nieciecza's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lechia Gdansk 1.19 PPG, Nieciecza 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lechia Gdansk win broke the near-deadlock. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm. Nieciecza (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights