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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lechia Gdansk and Motor Lublin share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Polsat Plus Arena, Regular Season - 4, as Lechia Gdansk and Motor Lublin drew 3-3 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 2.22 xG and Motor Lublin 1.64 xG, a combined 3.86. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Motor Lublin outscored their 1.64 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 1.15 / defence 1.34 against Motor Lublin attack 0.98 / defence 1.21, drawn from 37/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 51% | Draw 21% | Motor Lublin 29%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 61%, Motor Lublin 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Motor Lublin's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Motor Lublin arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights