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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Lech Poznan defy the odds to beat Lechia Gdansk 3-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lech Poznan beat Lechia Gdansk 3-4 at Polsat Plus Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.53 xG and Lech Poznan 1.45 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lech Poznan outscored their 1.45 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 1.06 / defence 1.11 against Lech Poznan attack 1.06 / defence 0.95, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 40% | Draw 24% | Lech Poznan 36%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Lech Poznan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 57%, Lech Poznan 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Lech Poznan's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.06. That form edge translated into the three points. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights