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Shock result as Lechia Gdansk defy the odds to beat Jagiellonia 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lechia Gdansk beat Jagiellonia 1-0 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk, Regular Season - 26, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 0.87 xG and Jagiellonia 1.47 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Jagiellonia landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 0.65 / defence 1.18 against Jagiellonia attack 1.04 / defence 0.94, drawn from 25/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 22% | Draw 27% | Jagiellonia 51%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Lechia Gdansk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 52%, Jagiellonia 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Jagiellonia's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 0.84. Form was overturned, with Lechia Gdansk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights