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Dominant Lechia Gdansk run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Gornik Zabrze.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lechia Gdansk beat Gornik Zabrze 5-2 at Polsat Plus Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.82 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.07 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gornik Zabrze outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 1.17 / defence 1.06 against Gornik Zabrze attack 0.82 / defence 0.96, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 53% | Draw 28% | Gornik Zabrze 20%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 63%, Gornik Zabrze 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lechia Gdansk 1.16 PPG, Gornik Zabrze 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lechia Gdansk win broke the near-deadlock. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights