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Prediction vindicated as Gornik Zabrze edge out Lechia Gdansk 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gornik Zabrze beat Lechia Gdansk 1-2 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk, Regular Season - 24, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 0.92 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.24 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 0.64 / defence 1.15 against Gornik Zabrze attack 0.93 / defence 1.05, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 27% | Draw 29% | Gornik Zabrze 44%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 48%, Gornik Zabrze 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Gornik Zabrze arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.91. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights