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Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 24

Kick-off

Sun 9 Mar 2025

13:45

Venue

Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Poland

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Gornik Zabrze Win

27%

Lechia Gdansk

3.66

29%

Draw

3.46

44%

Gornik Zabrze

2.28

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

0 – 1

14.3%

Away win

Most likely

1 – 1

13.1%

Draw

0 – 0

11.5%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

0.92

Lechia Gdansk xG

Total xG

2.16

1.24

Gornik Zabrze xG

27%
29%
44%
Lechia GdanskDrawGornik Zabrze

3.66

27%

Home win

3.46

29%

Draw

2.28

44%

Away win

Goals Markets

64%

Over 1.5

1.56

36%

Under 1.5

2.78

37%

Over 2.5

2.70

63%

Under 2.5

1.59

17%

Over 3.5

5.88

83%

Under 3.5

1.20

7%

Over 4.5

14.29

93%

Under 4.5

1.08

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

43%

BTTS Yes

2.34

57%

BTTS No

1.75

Clean Sheet

29%

Lechia Gdansk

3.47

40%

Gornik Zabrze

2.50

Win to Nil

8%

Lechia Gdansk

12.70

17%

Gornik Zabrze

5.72

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 11.5 14.3 8.9 3.7 1.1 0.3
1 10.6 13.1 8.2 3.4 1.1 0.3
2 4.8 6.0 3.8 1.6 0.5 0.1
3 1.5 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.1
4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1
5 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 0.918
λ Away (xG) 1.244
Total xG 2.162
League avg home goals 1.363
League avg away goals 1.165
Lechia Gdansk attack strength 0.643
Lechia Gdansk defence strength 1.148
Gornik Zabrze attack strength 0.930
Gornik Zabrze defence strength 1.047
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 23 / 57