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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lechia Gdansk and Cracovia Krakow share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lechia Gdansk and Cracovia Krakow finished level at 1-1 at Polsat Plus Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.66 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.21 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 1.32 / defence 1.10 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.89 / defence 0.80, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 47% | Draw 25% | Cracovia Krakow 27%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 64%, Cracovia Krakow 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lechia Gdansk 1.23 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights