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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Lechia Gdansk edge out Arka Gdynia 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lechia Gdansk beat Arka Gdynia 1-0 at Polsat Plus Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 2.25 xG and Arka Gdynia 1.19 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lechia Gdansk fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Arka Gdynia landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 1.20 / defence 1.46 against Arka Gdynia attack 0.66 / defence 1.16, drawn from 39/5 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 60% | Draw 21% | Arka Gdynia 18%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 100%, Arka Gdynia 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 80%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.

Arka Gdynia's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Arka Gdynia arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.40. Form was overturned, with Lechia Gdansk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lechia Gdansk managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 3.40 average — tighter than their form line. Arka Gdynia managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights