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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lech Poznan and Wisla Plock share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Poznan, Regular Season - 34, as Lech Poznan and Wisla Plock drew 2-2 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lech Poznan 2.22 xG and Wisla Plock 1.15 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Wisla Plock outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lech Poznan attack 1.46 / defence 1.14 against Wisla Plock attack 0.86 / defence 1.10, drawn from 67/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lech Poznan 61% | Draw 22% | Wisla Plock 18%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lech Poznan 67%, Wisla Plock 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lech Poznan's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Wisla Plock's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.36. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights