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Prediction vindicated as Lech Poznan edge out Widzew Łódź 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lech Poznan beat Widzew Łódź 2-1 at Stadion Poznan, Regular Season - 7, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lech Poznan 1.86 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.17 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lech Poznan attack 1.14 / defence 1.07 against Widzew Łódź attack 0.88 / defence 1.02, drawn from 38/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lech Poznan 53% | Draw 23% | Widzew Łódź 24%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lech Poznan 58%, Widzew Łódź 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lech Poznan's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Widzew Łódź's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights