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Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 7

Kick-off

Sun 31 Aug 2025

16:30

Venue

Stadion Poznan

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Poland

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Lech Poznan Win

53%

Lech Poznan

1.87

23%

Draw

4.41

24%

Widzew Łódź

4.18

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

10.5%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

9.8%

Home win

1 – 0

9.0%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.86

Lech Poznan xG

Total xG

3.03

1.17

Widzew Łódź xG

53%
23%
24%
Lech PoznanDrawWidzew Łódź

1.87

53%

Home win

4.41

23%

Draw

4.18

24%

Away win

Goals Markets

81%

Over 1.5

1.23

19%

Under 1.5

5.26

58%

Over 2.5

1.72

42%

Under 2.5

2.38

36%

Over 3.5

2.78

64%

Under 3.5

1.56

19%

Over 4.5

5.26

81%

Under 4.5

1.23

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

58%

BTTS Yes

1.72

42%

BTTS No

2.39

Clean Sheet

31%

Lech Poznan

3.23

16%

Widzew Łódź

6.40

Win to Nil

17%

Lech Poznan

6.05

4%

Widzew Łódź

26.76

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.8 5.7 3.3 1.3 0.4 0.1
1 9.0 10.5 6.2 2.4 0.7 0.2
2 8.3 9.8 5.7 2.2 0.7 0.2
3 5.2 6.0 3.5 1.4 0.4 0.1
4 2.4 2.8 1.6 0.6 0.2
5 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.857
λ Away (xG) 1.172
Total xG 3.029
League avg home goals 1.597
League avg away goals 1.253
Lech Poznan attack strength 1.140
Lech Poznan defence strength 1.067
Widzew Łódź attack strength 0.877
Widzew Łódź defence strength 1.020
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 38 / 40