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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lech Poznan cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Stal Mielec.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lech Poznan beat Stal Mielec 3-1 at Enea Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lech Poznan 2.12 xG and Stal Mielec 0.96 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lech Poznan beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lech Poznan attack 1.37 / defence 0.89 against Stal Mielec attack 0.92 / defence 1.14, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lech Poznan 64% | Draw 20% | Stal Mielec 16%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lech Poznan 49%, Stal Mielec 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lech Poznan's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Stal Mielec's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.04 average — above their attacking norm. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights