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Shock result as Raków Częstochowa defy the odds to beat Lech Poznan 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Raków Częstochowa beat Lech Poznan 0-1 at Enea Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lech Poznan 1.46 xG and Raków Częstochowa 0.96 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lech Poznan fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lech Poznan attack 1.42 / defence 0.88 against Raków Częstochowa attack 0.98 / defence 0.72, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lech Poznan 48% | Draw 28% | Raków Częstochowa 24%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Raków Częstochowa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lech Poznan 48%, Raków Częstochowa 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lech Poznan's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lech Poznan 1.74 PPG, Raków Częstochowa 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Raków Częstochowa win broke the near-deadlock. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights