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Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 21

Kick-off

Fri 14 Feb 2025

19:30

Venue

Enea Stadion

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Poland

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Lech Poznan Win

48%

Lech Poznan

2.09

28%

Draw

3.53

24%

Raków Częstochowa

4.19

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

13.0%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

12.5%

Draw

2 – 0

9.5%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.46

Lech Poznan xG

Total xG

2.42

0.96

Raków Częstochowa xG

48%
28%
24%
Lech PoznanDrawRaków Częstochowa

2.09

48%

Home win

3.53

28%

Draw

4.19

24%

Away win

Goals Markets

70%

Over 1.5

1.43

30%

Under 1.5

3.33

44%

Over 2.5

2.27

56%

Under 2.5

1.79

23%

Over 3.5

4.35

77%

Under 3.5

1.30

10%

Over 4.5

10.00

90%

Under 4.5

1.11

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

48%

BTTS Yes

2.07

52%

BTTS No

1.93

Clean Sheet

38%

Lech Poznan

2.61

23%

Raków Częstochowa

4.30

Win to Nil

18%

Lech Poznan

5.46

6%

Raków Częstochowa

18.02

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.9 8.5 4.1 1.3 0.3 0.1
1 13.0 12.5 6.0 1.9 0.5 0.1
2 9.5 9.1 4.4 1.4 0.3 0.1
3 4.6 4.4 2.1 0.7 0.2
4 1.7 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.1
5 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.459
λ Away (xG) 0.959
Total xG 2.418
League avg home goals 1.418
League avg away goals 1.110
Lech Poznan attack strength 1.421
Lech Poznan defence strength 0.883
Raków Częstochowa attack strength 0.978
Raków Częstochowa defence strength 0.724
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 54 / 54