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Dominant Lech Poznan run riot with a 8-1 hammering of Puszcza Niepołomice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lech Poznan beat Puszcza Niepołomice 8-1 at Enea Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lech Poznan 2.29 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 0.83 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 8-1 for 9 actual goals. Lech Poznan beat their projection by 5.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lech Poznan attack 1.33 / defence 0.81 against Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.82 / defence 1.14, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lech Poznan 70% | Draw 18% | Puszcza Niepołomice 12%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lech Poznan 53%, Puszcza Niepołomice 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lech Poznan's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.05. That form edge translated into the three points. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) scored 8 against a 2.06 average — above their attacking norm. Puszcza Niepołomice (home/away splits) shipped 8 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights