🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Lech Poznan edge out Piast Gliwice 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lech Poznan beat Piast Gliwice 1-0 at Enea Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lech Poznan 2.19 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.12 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lech Poznan fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Piast Gliwice landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lech Poznan attack 1.59 / defence 0.85 against Piast Gliwice attack 1.06 / defence 0.88, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lech Poznan 62% | Draw 20% | Piast Gliwice 18%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lech Poznan 54%, Piast Gliwice 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lech Poznan's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Piast Gliwice's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.31. Form held, and they took the win. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights