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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Lech Poznan run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Nieciecza.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lech Poznan beat Nieciecza 4-1 at Stadion Poznan, Regular Season - 26, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lech Poznan 2.34 xG and Nieciecza 1.20 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Lech Poznan beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lech Poznan attack 1.36 / defence 1.23 against Nieciecza attack 0.86 / defence 1.21, drawn from 59/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lech Poznan 62% | Draw 20% | Nieciecza 18%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lech Poznan 68%, Nieciecza 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lech Poznan's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Nieciecza's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.88. That form edge translated into the three points. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Nieciecza (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights