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Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 26

Kick-off

Sun 22 Mar 2026

13:45

Venue

Stadion Poznan

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Poland

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Lech Poznan Win

62%

Lech Poznan

1.60

20%

Draw

5.11

18%

Nieciecza

5.56

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 1

9.5%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

8.2%

Draw

2 – 0

8.0%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.34

Lech Poznan xG

Total xG

3.54

1.20

Nieciecza xG

62%
20%
18%
Lech PoznanDrawNieciecza

1.60

62%

Home win

5.11

20%

Draw

5.56

18%

Away win

Goals Markets

87%

Over 1.5

1.15

13%

Under 1.5

7.69

69%

Over 2.5

1.45

31%

Under 2.5

3.23

47%

Over 3.5

2.13

53%

Under 3.5

1.89

28%

Over 4.5

3.57

72%

Under 4.5

1.39

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

63%

BTTS Yes

1.58

37%

BTTS No

2.73

Clean Sheet

30%

Lech Poznan

3.31

10%

Nieciecza

10.35

Win to Nil

19%

Lech Poznan

5.31

2%

Nieciecza

57.53

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 2.9 3.5 2.1 0.8 0.3 0.1
1 6.8 8.2 4.9 2.0 0.6 0.1
2 8.0 9.5 5.7 2.3 0.7 0.2
3 6.2 7.4 4.5 1.8 0.5 0.1
4 3.6 4.3 2.6 1.0 0.3 0.1
5 1.7 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.337
λ Away (xG) 1.198
Total xG 3.535
League avg home goals 1.417
League avg away goals 1.125
Lech Poznan attack strength 1.363
Lech Poznan defence strength 1.231
Nieciecza attack strength 0.865
Nieciecza defence strength 1.210
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 59 / 25