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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lech Poznan and Motor Lublin share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Poznan, Regular Season - 14, as Lech Poznan and Motor Lublin drew 2-2 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lech Poznan 1.92 xG and Motor Lublin 1.42 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lech Poznan attack 1.09 / defence 1.23 against Motor Lublin attack 0.98 / defence 1.06, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lech Poznan 48% | Draw 24% | Motor Lublin 28%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lech Poznan 59%, Motor Lublin 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lech Poznan's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Motor Lublin's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights