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Dominant Lech Poznan run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Legia Warszawa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lech Poznan beat Legia Warszawa 4-0 at Stadion Poznan, Regular Season - 30, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lech Poznan 2.03 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.66 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Lech Poznan beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Legia Warszawa landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lech Poznan attack 1.53 / defence 1.33 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.10 / defence 0.95, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lech Poznan 46% | Draw 23% | Legia Warszawa 31%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lech Poznan 62%, Legia Warszawa 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lech Poznan's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.44. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.52 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights