Lech Poznan 5-2 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lech Poznan at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Legia Warszawa make the trip to Enea Stadion to face Lech Poznan in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 10 November 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lech Poznan have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 8W 0D 2L. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Lech Poznan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lech Poznan's home record at Enea Stadion: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Enea Stadion. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Enea Stadion this season.
Legia Warszawa's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Legia Warszawa have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Lech Poznan's favour (2.40 vs 1.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Lech Poznan lead 1W to 1W over the last 6 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 6 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 1–2 with Legia Warszawa winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Lech Poznan half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Legia Warszawa half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lech Poznan 50% versus Legia Warszawa 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lech Poznan 48% | Legia Warszawa 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lech Poznan 1.32 xG and Legia Warszawa 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lech Poznan attack 1.150 / defence 0.796 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.012 / defence 0.772. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.194. Legia Warszawa's defence strength of 0.772 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Lech Poznan's defence rating of 0.796 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Lech Poznan games / 48 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lech Poznan 45% | Draw 28% | Legia Warszawa 27%. Fair-value odds: Lech Poznan 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Legia Warszawa 3.70. Lech Poznan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lech Poznan as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lech Poznan if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lech Poznan 50% | Legia Warszawa 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Enea Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Nov 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lech Poznan 45% | Draw 28% | Legia Warszawa 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Lech Poznan 1.32 / Legia Warszawa 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Lech Poznan attack 1.150 / def 0.796 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.012 / def 0.772 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Lech Poznan (45%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Lech Poznan xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Legia Warszawa xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Enea Stadion.
What was the final score in Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa?
Lech Poznan 5 - 2 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Enea Stadion.
What competition is Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Lech Poznan a 45% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lech Poznan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Lech Poznan and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lech Poznan and Legia Warszawa?
Record (6 meetings): Lech Poznan 1W | Draws 4 | Legia Warszawa 1W.
What form are Lech Poznan and Legia Warszawa in?
Lech Poznan (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Lech Poznan's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Legia Warszawa's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Legia Warszawa's attack (1.01x) against Lech Poznan's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lech Poznan Win
45%
2.23
28%
3.58
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Lech Poznan xG
Total xG
2.28
0.96
Legia Warszawa xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
17%
5.85
7%
13.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.0 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Lech Poznan and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Lech Poznan and 0.96 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, Lech Poznan have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 24W 12D 12L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Lech Poznan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Legia Warszawa's form line: 23W 15D 10L from 48 games, 1.75 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.75 PPG for Lech Poznan against 1.75 for Legia Warszawa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Lech Poznan have posted 2.00 PPG from 23 outings (14W 4D 5L).
On the road, Legia Warszawa have gone 10W 8D 5L from 23 away games — 1.65 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lech Poznan are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.60 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Lech Poznan have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lech Poznan
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lech Poznan and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Lech Poznan have gone 24W 12D 12L in their last 48 games (1.75 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 23W 15D 10L in their last 48 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lech Poznan at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Lech Poznan's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lech Poznan at home: 2.00 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Lech Poznan or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lech Poznan have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lech Poznan won 4-0 on 26 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lech Poznan have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Legia Warszawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lech Poznan
5
Draws
1
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lech Poznan and Legia Warszawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Lech Poznan have won 4, Legia Warszawa have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Lech Poznan and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Lech Poznan 4-0 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Lech Poznan and Legia Warszawa?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lech Poznan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lech Poznan 52%, Legia Warszawa 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Lech Poznan) and 35% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: Lech Poznan keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lech Poznan home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lech Poznan play Legia Warszawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Lech Poznan's recent matches and 52% of Legia Warszawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Lech Poznan's recent games and 35% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lech Poznan and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Lech Poznan have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lech Poznan run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Legia Warszawa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lech Poznan beat Legia Warszawa 5-2 at Enea Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lech Poznan 1.32 xG and Legia Warszawa 0.96 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Lech Poznan beat their projection by 3.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Legia Warszawa outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lech Poznan attack 1.15 / defence 0.80 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.01 / defence 0.77, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lech Poznan 45% | Draw 28% | Legia Warszawa 27%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lech Poznan 48%, Legia Warszawa 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lech Poznan's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lech Poznan 1.75 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lech Poznan win broke the near-deadlock. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.