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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lech Poznan and Korona Kielce share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lech Poznan and Korona Kielce finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Poznan, Regular Season - 5, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lech Poznan 1.74 xG and Korona Kielce 1.16 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lech Poznan attack 1.15 / defence 1.12 against Korona Kielce attack 0.83 / defence 0.90, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lech Poznan 51% | Draw 24% | Korona Kielce 25%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lech Poznan 60%, Korona Kielce 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lech Poznan's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Korona Kielce's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.61 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights