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Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 5

Kick-off

Sat 16 Aug 2025

19:15

Venue

Stadion Poznan

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Poland

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Lech Poznan Win

51%

Lech Poznan

1.96

24%

Draw

4.17

25%

Korona Kielce

3.99

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.1%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

9.7%

Home win

1 – 0

9.6%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.74

Lech Poznan xG

Total xG

2.90

1.16

Korona Kielce xG

51%
24%
25%
Lech PoznanDrawKorona Kielce

1.96

51%

Home win

4.17

24%

Draw

3.99

25%

Away win

Goals Markets

78%

Over 1.5

1.28

22%

Under 1.5

4.55

55%

Over 2.5

1.82

45%

Under 2.5

2.22

33%

Over 3.5

3.03

67%

Under 3.5

1.49

17%

Over 4.5

5.88

83%

Under 4.5

1.20

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

57%

BTTS Yes

1.76

43%

BTTS No

2.31

Clean Sheet

32%

Lech Poznan

3.17

18%

Korona Kielce

5.71

Win to Nil

16%

Lech Poznan

6.23

4%

Korona Kielce

22.75

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.5 6.4 3.7 1.4 0.4 0.1
1 9.6 11.1 6.4 2.5 0.7 0.2
2 8.4 9.7 5.6 2.2 0.6 0.1
3 4.9 5.6 3.2 1.2 0.4 0.1
4 2.1 2.4 1.4 0.5 0.2
5 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.742
λ Away (xG) 1.155
Total xG 2.897
League avg home goals 1.685
League avg away goals 1.243
Lech Poznan attack strength 1.152
Lech Poznan defence strength 1.125
Korona Kielce attack strength 0.826
Korona Kielce defence strength 0.897
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 37 / 38