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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lech Poznan and Jagiellonia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Poznan, Regular Season - 10, as Lech Poznan and Jagiellonia drew 2-2 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lech Poznan 1.12 xG and Jagiellonia 1.28 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Lech Poznan beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lech Poznan attack 1.11 / defence 1.12 against Jagiellonia attack 0.95 / defence 0.66, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lech Poznan 32% | Draw 29% | Jagiellonia 39%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lech Poznan 60%, Jagiellonia 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lech Poznan's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Jagiellonia's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lech Poznan 2.00 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights