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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 10

Kick-off

Sun 28 Sep 2025

13:45

Venue

Stadion Poznan

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Poland

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Jagiellonia Win

32%

Lech Poznan

3.17

29%

Draw

3.45

39%

Jagiellonia

2.54

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

13.0%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

11.7%

Away win

1 – 0

10.2%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.12

Lech Poznan xG

Total xG

2.39

1.28

Jagiellonia xG

32%
29%
39%
Lech PoznanDrawJagiellonia

3.17

32%

Home win

3.45

29%

Draw

2.54

39%

Away win

Goals Markets

69%

Over 1.5

1.45

31%

Under 1.5

3.23

43%

Over 2.5

2.33

57%

Under 2.5

1.75

22%

Over 3.5

4.55

78%

Under 3.5

1.28

10%

Over 4.5

10.00

90%

Under 4.5

1.11

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

49%

BTTS Yes

2.03

51%

BTTS No

1.97

Clean Sheet

28%

Lech Poznan

3.59

33%

Jagiellonia

3.05

Win to Nil

9%

Lech Poznan

11.37

13%

Jagiellonia

7.75

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 9.1 11.7 7.5 3.2 1.0 0.3
1 10.2 13.0 8.3 3.5 1.1 0.3
2 5.7 7.3 4.6 2.0 0.6 0.2
3 2.1 2.7 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.1
4 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1
5 0.1 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.116
λ Away (xG) 1.278
Total xG 2.394
League avg home goals 1.538
League avg away goals 1.199
Lech Poznan attack strength 1.107
Lech Poznan defence strength 1.116
Jagiellonia attack strength 0.955
Jagiellonia defence strength 0.656
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 42 / 42