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Prediction vindicated as Lech Poznan edge out Gornik Zabrze 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lech Poznan beat Gornik Zabrze 2-1 at Stadion Poznan, Regular Season - 3, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lech Poznan 1.59 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.27 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lech Poznan attack 1.21 / defence 1.14 against Gornik Zabrze attack 0.86 / defence 0.85, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Lech Poznan 45% | Draw 25% | Gornik Zabrze 30%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lech Poznan 58%, Gornik Zabrze 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lech Poznan's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.47. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights