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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lech Poznan and GKS Katowice share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Poznan, Regular Season - 28, as Lech Poznan and GKS Katowice drew 3-3 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lech Poznan 1.89 xG and GKS Katowice 1.29 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Lech Poznan beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. GKS Katowice outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lech Poznan attack 1.44 / defence 1.24 against GKS Katowice attack 0.98 / defence 0.92, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lech Poznan 50% | Draw 25% | GKS Katowice 25%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lech Poznan 61%, GKS Katowice 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lech Poznan's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

GKS Katowice's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.44. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. GKS Katowice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights