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Dominant Cracovia Krakow run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Lech Poznan.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cracovia Krakow beat Lech Poznan 1-4 at Stadion Poznan, Regular Season - 1, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lech Poznan 1.95 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.16 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Lech Poznan fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Cracovia Krakow outscored their 1.16 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lech Poznan attack 1.32 / defence 0.84 against Cracovia Krakow attack 1.00 / defence 0.97, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lech Poznan 55% | Draw 23% | Cracovia Krakow 22%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Cracovia Krakow win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lech Poznan 56%, Cracovia Krakow 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lech Poznan's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Cracovia Krakow winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.71 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights