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Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 1

Kick-off

Fri 18 Jul 2025

19:30

Venue

Stadion Poznan

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Poland

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Lech Poznan Win

55%

Lech Poznan

1.80

23%

Draw

4.43

22%

Cracovia Krakow

4.56

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

10.1%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

9.8%

Home win

1 – 0

8.7%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.95

Lech Poznan xG

Total xG

3.11

1.16

Cracovia Krakow xG

55%
23%
22%
Lech PoznanDrawCracovia Krakow

1.80

55%

Home win

4.43

23%

Draw

4.56

22%

Away win

Goals Markets

82%

Over 1.5

1.22

18%

Under 1.5

5.56

60%

Over 2.5

1.67

40%

Under 2.5

2.50

38%

Over 3.5

2.63

62%

Under 3.5

1.61

20%

Over 4.5

5.00

80%

Under 4.5

1.25

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

59%

BTTS Yes

1.69

41%

BTTS No

2.45

Clean Sheet

31%

Lech Poznan

3.19

14%

Cracovia Krakow

7.05

Win to Nil

17%

Lech Poznan

5.75

3%

Cracovia Krakow

32.12

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.4 5.2 3.0 1.2 0.3 0.1
1 8.7 10.1 5.8 2.3 0.7 0.2
2 8.5 9.8 5.7 2.2 0.6 0.1
3 5.5 6.4 3.7 1.4 0.4 0.1
4 2.7 3.1 1.8 0.7 0.2
5 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.953
λ Away (xG) 1.160
Total xG 3.113
League avg home goals 1.529
League avg away goals 1.367
Lech Poznan attack strength 1.319
Lech Poznan defence strength 0.844
Cracovia Krakow attack strength 1.005
Cracovia Krakow defence strength 0.968
Data phase PrevSeason
Games used (H/A) 34 / 34