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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lech Poznan and Arka Gdynia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lech Poznan and Arka Gdynia finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Poznan, Regular Season - 32, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lech Poznan 3.52 xG and Arka Gdynia 1.14 xG, a combined 4.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Lech Poznan fell 2.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lech Poznan attack 1.58 / defence 1.20 against Arka Gdynia attack 0.87 / defence 1.52, drawn from 65/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lech Poznan 81% | Draw 11% | Arka Gdynia 8%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 81%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 84%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 95% and landed. Over 3.5 was 68% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lech Poznan 67%, Arka Gdynia 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lech Poznan's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Arka Gdynia's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Arka Gdynia (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights