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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Zaglebie Lubin defy the odds to beat Korona Kielce 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zaglebie Lubin beat Korona Kielce 1-2 at Exbud Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 1.43 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.08 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 0.89 / defence 0.99 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.89 / defence 1.02, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 44% | Draw 28% | Zaglebie Lubin 28%, with Korona Kielce to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Zaglebie Lubin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Korona Kielce 38%, Zaglebie Lubin 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Korona Kielce's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Korona Kielce 1.36 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zaglebie Lubin win broke the near-deadlock. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights